# Index Methodology

## Methodology & Derivation

The ISFR is the foundational benchmark for onchain risk, designed to function as the Risk-Free Rate of the agentic economy.

DeFi yields are driven by two distinct forces: the cost of *spot borrowing* (hard capital) and the cost of *secured leverage* (derivatives). ISFR formally separates these forces, calculating a solid Base Rate and adjusting it dynamically using a dampened Risk Premium.

The result is a highly robust, manipulation-resistant benchmark that captures real-time market sentiment without being broken by short-term noise.

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### 1. Base Rate (Spot Lending)

The foundation of the ISFR is the **Base Rate ($R\_{base}$)**. This represents the absolute floor cost of capital - what a user can earn by lending stablecoins to over-collateralized, blue-chip smart contracts with zero directional market exposure.

We derive the Base Rate by taking a weighted average of the deepest spot lending markets in DeFi (the **Lending Tier**):

<p align="center"><span class="math">R_{base} = \sum_{i \in L} (w_i \cdot r_i)</span></p>

* *L* - The set of approved Lending Tier sources (e.g., Aave V3, Compound V3).
* *r*<sub>*i*</sub> - The current annualized supply APY for USDC on source $i$.
* *w*<sub>*i*</sub> - The governed weight of source $i$ based on total liquidity depth (\sum *w*<sub>*i*</sub> = 1).

*Example:* If Aave is yielding 1.97% (60% weight) and Compound is yielding 2.56% (40% weight), the Base Rate is established at **2.20%**.

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### 2. Deriv Spread (Market Sentiment)

While the Base Rate moves slowly, the demand for leverage moves in milliseconds. To capture this, we measure the **Deriv Spread ($S\_{deriv}$)**.

The system analyzes the **Derivatives Tier** (e.g., Hyperliquid funding rates, Ethena basis yields) to calculate the aggregate secured yield ($R\_{deriv}$).

The Deriv Spread is simply the difference between the fast-moving synthetic rate and the slow-moving spot rate:

<p align="center"><span class="math">S_{deriv} = R_{deriv} - R_{base}</span></p>

**Interpreting the Spread:**

* **Positive Spread ($S\_{deriv} > 0$):** The market is "Risk-On" (Greedy). Traders are willing to pay massive funding rates to maintain leveraged long positions. The cost of synthetic leverage exceeds the cost of spot borrowing.
* **Negative Spread ($S\_{deriv} < 0$):** The market is "Risk-Off" (Fear/Neutral). Demand for long leverage has collapsed, or shorts are aggressively paying longs.

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### 3. Risk Premium

If we added the raw Deriv Spread directly to the Base Rate, the ISFR would be too volatile to serve as a reliable benchmark. A 10-minute flash crash on a single exchange could distort the rate by 50%.

To solve this, ISFR v2 introduces the **Risk Premium (`P`**<sub>***`risk`***</sub>**)**, utilizing an alpha scalar  to dampen extreme noise.

<p align="center"><span class="math">P_{risk} = S_{deriv} \cdot \alpha</span></p>

* Alpha scalar: A governed parameter (currently set to `0.25`). This acts as a shock absorber. It ensures that the ISFR captures the *trend* of the derivative market without being hijacked by short-term *wicks*.

*Example:* If the Deriv Spread is aggressively negative at -86.9 bps, applying the 0.25 alpha dampens the shock, resulting in a calculated Risk Premium of **-21.7 bps**.

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### 4. Final ISFR Calculation

The final ISFR v2 is computed by combining the slow-moving Base Rate with the real-time, dampened Risk Premium.

$$\text{ISFR} = R\_{base} + P\_{risk}$$

Or, fully expanded:

$$\text{ISFR} = R\_{base} + \alpha(R\_{deriv} - R\_{base})$$

#### **Live Example Calculation**

Based on the live dashboard parameters:

1. **Base Rate (R**<sub>***base***</sub>**):** 1.97% (Anchored by Aave/Compound)
2. **Deriv Spread (S**<sub>***deriv***</sub>**):** -86.9 bps (Derivatives are cheaper than spot)
3. **Risk Premium (P**<sub>***risk***</sub>**):** -21.7 bps (Dampened by alpha = 0.25)

**Final ISFR:** `1.97% + (-0.217%)` = **1.75%**

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### Index Goals

1. **Manipulation Resistance:** To manipulate the ISFR, an attacker cannot just spoof a single orderbook. They would have to simultaneously manipulate billions of dollars in Aave spot liquidity *and* the funding rates across major perpetual exchanges.
2. **TradFi Compatibility:** By separating the "Risk-Free" component from the "Credit Spread" component, the ISFR structurally mirrors how traditional finance calculates SOFR and LIBOR.
3. **Mean-Reversion:** Because the alpha scalar dampens extreme volatility, the ISFR naturally mean-reverts, making it the perfect benchmark for pricing fixed-rate loans and yield swaps within the Nunchi ecosystem.
